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With just three weeks until the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle kicks off the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, Clerk of the Course Jon Pullin has issued a significant going update that has sent ante-post punters scrambling for the “mudlark” section of their form guides.
Following a winter that has seen Gloucestershire drenched by persistent rainfall, the current going at Prestbury Park is officially Soft, Heavy in places. While Cheltenham is famous for its ability to dry rapidly, the medium-range forecasts suggest that the “spring ground” usually associated with March is currently a distant dream.
Jon Pullin, who recently faced scrutiny over a collapsed drain during the January fixtures, was cautious but realistic when assessing the turf this morning.
“The track has taken a lot of water over the last fortnight,” Pullin noted. “While we have a fantastic drainage system, the sheer volume means we are starting from a very deep base. Unless we see a prolonged period of dry, windy weather, I’d be very surprised if we weren’t looking at Soft ground for the opening Tuesday.”
The news has immediate implications for the Festival bankers. Nicky Henderson’s Old Park Star, the current 15/8 favorite for the Supreme, has a question mark over his head; while brilliant on a sounder surface, his sole career defeat came in testing conditions.
Conversely, the “soft” outlook has seen support for Willie Mullins‘ powerhouse Gaelic Warrior in the Ryanair Chase and the emerging Haiti Couleurs in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. Haiti Couleurs was last seen “bossing” his rivals in desperate ground at Newbury, and his connections will be doing a rain dance from now until the Gold Cup.
Punters are also being urged to look beyond the official description. New analysis tools, such as the Racing Post’s “The Edge,” are suggesting that the GoingStick readings are currently trending toward the lower end of the scale. A reading near 6.0 suggests that even if the ground is called “Good to Soft” by name, it will be “Soft” by nature.
For trainers like Dan Skelton, whose Mydaddypaddy has shown remarkable versatility on both Good to Soft and Soft, the conditions may provide an edge over pure speedsters. Skelton has been vocal about his preference for “genuine” jumping ground, and it looks like he might get his wish.
The next ten days will be crucial. Cheltenham can be a fickle mistress; it can dry out in forty-eight hours under a biting east wind. But as of February 17, the umbrellas are up, the mudlarks are shortening, and the 2026 Cheltenham Festival is shaping up to be a war of attrition.
