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The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is the race that fires the starting gun on the entire Cheltenham Festival. As the first race of Champion Day, it’s greeted by the famous Cheltenham Roar, that wall of noise from 70,000 people that makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand up.
But beyond the atmosphere, this is a race with some of the clearest trends at the whole Festival. The data points in a pretty consistent direction, and if you’re having a bet in 2026, it’s well worth knowing what history tells us.
Based on the last 12 years, winners are almost always aged 5 or 6, towards the top of the market, and won last time out. The runners below currently match that profile.
Runners shown match the key trends from our analysis below. Where strict filtering returns too few runners, we focus on the strongest indicators so you always see a realistic shortlist. Read the full trends breakdown to understand why these horses fit the profile.
| Race | Skybet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle |
| Day | Champion Day — Tuesday 10 March 2026 |
| Time | 13:20 |
| Distance | 2m 87y |
| Grade | Grade 1 |
| Prize Money | £150,000 guaranteed |
| Runners | Up to 20 |
| Weights | 4yo 10st 11lb, 5yo+ 11st 7lb |
This is as clear a trend as you’ll find anywhere at the Festival. Six-year-olds dominate the all-time record with 26 wins since 1972, followed closely by five-year-olds with 20 wins. Between them that’s 46 of 53 winners, or 87% of all runnings.
The full age breakdown since 1972 tells the story plainly:
In the last 12 renewals alone, 11 of the 12 winners were aged five or six. The one exception was Appreciate It in 2021, a seven-year-old, who became the first of that age to win since Captain Cee Bee back in 2008.
It is worth noting the weight difference in this race. Four-year-olds carry 10st 11lb while five-year-olds and older carry 11st 7lb. That 10lb advantage hasn’t been enough to produce many four-year-old winners historically, which tells you something about how much raw ability matters in a race like this.
2026 Verdict: Focus on five and six-year-olds. Anything aged four, seven or older is swimming against a very strong historical tide.
Not as often as you might expect for a championship novice race. Favourites and joint-favourites have won just 13 of the 51 runnings since 1972, a strike rate of around 25%. So three quarters of the time the favourite gets beaten.
That said, the market is still a strong guide in a different way. 11 of the last 12 winners were sent off in the top three in the betting. So while the favourite itself often gets turned over, a winner coming from outside the first three in the market is genuinely rare in the modern era.
Kopek Des Bordes became only the fifth winning favourite in the past 18 renewals when landing the 2025 running at 4/6. Before that, Constitution Hill won at 9/4 joint favourite in 2022 and Appreciate It at 8/11 favourite in 2021.
Going back through history, the longest-priced winner was Arctic Kinsman at 50/1 in 1994. Ebaziyan is one of two 40/1 winners. But those results belong to a different era. In the last decade, the winner has almost always been near the top of the market.
2026 Verdict: Don’t blindly back the favourite, they get beaten more often than not. But do focus your attention on the top three in the betting. A winner from outside that group is possible but increasingly rare.
The sweet spot in recent years has been in the 2/1 to 9/2 range, based on the last five winners: 4/6, 7/2, 9/2, 9/4 and 8/11. Every recent winner has been a single-figure price and all were joint favourites or favourites bar Slade Steel in 2024 at 7/2 joint favourite.
Going further back, only a couple of winners in recent decades have started at 12/1 or bigger. So while the occasional big-priced winner does happen, it is rare enough that you’d need a very strong reason to back something at a long price here.
2026 Verdict: The winner almost always comes from the top of the market. Prices between evens and 5/1 have the strongest recent record.
Ireland holds the stronger record overall with 17 wins from the last 28 runnings compared to 11 for Britain. In recent years that Irish dominance has been particularly strong, with Willie Mullins winning with Kopek Des Bordes in 2025 and Appreciate It in 2021, Henry de Bromhead winning with Slade Steel in 2024, and Barry Connell landing it with Marine Nationale in 2023.
The last British-trained winner was Constitution Hill for Nicky Henderson in 2022, who went on to become one of the great hurdlers of his generation before his retirement from hurdling was announced earlier this season.
2026 Verdict: Irish-trained runners have a strong recent record. British yards can and do win this race but Ireland has dominated the last decade.
Winning form is almost essential. 10 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before arriving at Cheltenham. A horse that has been beaten last time out is taking on a significant extra burden here.
Previous course form is less important than you might think. Only 3 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham before, and only one of those had actually won here. Unlike the Gold Cup where course experience is almost essential, the Supreme is a race where horses can and do win on their Festival debut.
The key trial races to watch are:
The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown is the standout, with 5 of the last 12 winners running there as their final prep. If a horse wins that race impressively, they deserve serious respect here.
The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown has also produced two of the last 12 winners and is the main British trial to look out for.
2026 Verdict: Back horses that won last time out, preferably in either the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle or the Tolworth. Previous Cheltenham form is not a requirement here unlike in the staying chases.
| Year | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kopek Des Bordes | Paul Townend | Willie Mullins | 4/6 F |
| 2024 | Slade Steel | Rachael Blackmore | Henry De Bromhead | 7/2 JF |
| 2023 | Marine Nationale | Michael O’Sullivan | Barry Connell | 9/2 JF |
| 2022 | Constitution Hill | Nico de Boinville | Nicky Henderson | 9/4 JF |
| 2021 | Appreciate It | Paul Townend | Willie Mullins | 8/11 F |
Our full race-by-race predictions will be available in the run up to the festival, but for now, you can see runners below that match the key trends from this article. Where applying every filter would leave too few runners to be useful, we’ve focused on the strongest indicators. Runners shown are aged 5 or 6 and currently towards the top of the market.
Odds correct at time of publication. Always check for the latest prices.
Once you’ve done your research, both Betfred and William Hill are offering some of the best free bets and new customer offers ahead of the Festival. Worth grabbing before race day so your account is ready to go.
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