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The road to the Cheltenham Festival has rarely looked so riddled with potholes. As we enter the final three-week countdown to the Champion Hurdle, the picture at the top of the market is less a clear portrait and more a confusing mosaic of fallen stars and unproven pretenders.
At the heart of the debate is The New Lion. On paper, Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old is the worthy 11/4 favourite, a status cemented by a capitalisation on Sir Gino’s unfortunate injury in the International Hurdle on Trials Day. But for those looking to buy a ticket for the Tuesday feature, the “banker” tag feels somewhat premature.
While The New Lion was the standout novice of last term, his transition to open company has been anything but smooth. A heavy fall when under pressure in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle remains fresh in the memory, and while he technically “won” on Trials Day, he didn’t exactly set the world alight before Sir Gino was pulled up. He is the clubhouse leader by default rather than dominance.
If the boys are failing to impress, the mares are ready to pick up the pieces—just as Golden Ace did in that extraordinary, logic-defying renewal twelve months ago.
Brighterdaysahead laid down a massive marker at the Dublin Racing Festival, dispatching the high-class Lossiemouth with ease in the Irish Champion Hurdle. On that form, Gordon Elliott’s mare should be a clear favourite, yet her record at Prestbury Park is the primary sticking point for punters. Beaten when odds-on in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle two years ago and a distant fourth in the Champion Hurdle last year, she still has to prove she can deliver her best on the Gloucestershire hills.
As for the defending champion, Golden Ace, she remains the ultimate “right place, right time” horse. Luck was certainly her companion at Newcastle and in last year’s Festival showpiece, but in a year where the opposition is this fragile, Jeremy Scott might find his stable star doesn’t need a miracle to retain her crown—just her usual grit.
Then there is the elephant in the room—or rather, the horse at Southwell. Constitution Hill remains the third-favourite for the Champion Hurdle, but his preparation is unprecedented. After his explosive Flat debut at Southwell last Friday, owner Michael Buckley has been vocal about a potential Melbourne Cup bid later this year.
It is a fairy tale, certainly, but for a horse who has fallen on three of his last four starts over hurdles, using a mile-and-a-half spin on the sand as a springboard to a Champion Hurdle feels more like a gamble than a training masterclass. Nicky Henderson has performed miracles before, but asking Constitution Hill to rediscover his jumping fluently after a Flat excursion is a tall order.
